Stormy and Warm Pattern For Central Alabama

A rather difficult forecast pattern is shaping up for the next 7 days across Alabama. The best advice is to plan for warm weather and summer-like scattered storms over the next several days.

tonight: Showers and storms come to an end shortly after sunset. Temperatures drop into the low to mid 60s, and the sky remains partly to mostly cloudy.

Sunday: More storms arrive in the morning, with the chance for a few additional isolated showers and storms in the afternoon. Rain chances decrease the later in the day you get, and we dry out by Sunday night. Highs around 80°, but some spots may stay cooler depending on the duration and timing of rain and storms.

The Week Ahead: As previously noted, this is a rather difficult forecast pattern. Gulf and Caribbean moisture will be surging into the state of Alabama over the next several days. This will help fuel rain chances through the week. The amount of total water in our atmosphere will run at least a little above average from Sunday to Thursday (minus a brief dry stretch Sunday night into Monday morning).

We have the moisture to support plenty of rain this week, but we don’t have a big trigger for that rain. From Sunday to Wednesday, the only things that could trigger showers and storms are small scale features in the atmosphere, and forecasting those small scale features is quite finnicky. Based on available moisture, and the upper-air pattern we are in, I’d expect a few scattered showers and storms across the state most of the week, but pinpointing exactly where and when is going to be next to impossible. Be prepared for summer-like downpours this week, and perhaps the occasional strong storm. Because we don’t have a big “trigger” for rain in the next few days, our chances of rain Monday-Wednesday aren’t particularly high, but it doesn’t mean we won’t see much rain. It just means not everyone will see rain. Those who do could see a lot of it. I’d expect an average of about a third of an inch of rain over the next 7 days across Central Alabama, but some may get a lot more, and a few may get nothing. Temperatures will be highly dependent on rain and rain timing each day, with some getting into the upper 80s, and some who see rain only just approaching 80°. We finally get a cold front to push through Thursday into Friday. That will increase chances of rain a bit, and drop our temperatures and chances of rain as we head into next weekend.

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